Competing Interests, Not Moral Crusades

As China continues to narrow the gap with the United States in both economic and technological spheres, a new phase of global rivalry is taking shape—driven less by ideology and more by strategic competition. What was once framed as a contest between political systems is now increasingly defined by trade disputes, military maneuvering, and competing visions of global leadership. Both nations are recalibrating their roles in a shifting international order, raising urgent questions about the long-term implications of an intensifying standoff between the world’s two largest economies.

This growing tension is particularly visible in the Indo-Pacific. At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth labeled China an “imminent threat” to Taiwan and speculated that Beijing may be preparing for military action by 2027. His remarks mark a notable pivot in U.S. strategy—emphasizing deterrence and confrontation over diplomacy and engagement.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict offers a cautionary precedent. Western decisions to expand NATO eastward—despite longstanding Russian warnings—fueled distrust and ultimately contributed to war. The consequences are clear: a prolonged conflict, hundreds of thousands of lives lost, and billions spent without achieving lasting security. A similar pattern of foreign intervention in the Taiwan Strait risks igniting another avoidable confrontation.

As a student of history, I believe that China and Taiwan, if left to their own devices, may find a path to resolve their differences peacefully. It is vital that external actors, particularly the United States and its allies, respect regional agency and avoid imposing rigid, zero-sum frameworks on complex issues. Reducing the U.S.-China rivalry to a Cold War redux—casting Beijing in the role of the Soviet Union—oversimplifies a far more nuanced geopolitical reality. These narratives not only obscure paths to peaceful resolution but increase the risk of miscalculation with global repercussions.

A Nation Transformed

China’s rise over the past four decades has been one of the most significant economic transformations in modern history. According to the World Bank, over 800 million Chinese citizens have been lifted out of poverty—accounting for more than 70% of global poverty reduction. Once a peripheral player in the global economy, China is now the second-largest economy, the world’s leading exporter, and a technology innovator in fields such as AI, 5G, and renewable energy. In 2019, it became the first country to land a rover on the far side of the Moon, and as of 2023, leads the world in installed solar and wind energy capacity (IEA, 2023).

Unlike many historic powers, China’s ascent has not relied on colonization or military conquest. Instead, it has been driven by a combination of state-led planning, market reforms, and global integration—a model that offers valuable lessons to other developing nations striving for sustainable growth.

Rethinking Governance

This extraordinary development also prompts deeper reflection on governance models. In a world shaped by diverse cultures and histories, a one-size-fits-all definition of democracy is inadequate. Governance—regardless of its form—should be transparent, efficient, people-centric, and rooted in the well-being of citizens. Instead of using democracy as a geopolitical tool, we need a thoughtful and honest debate about what effective, inclusive governance truly looks like. Societies may pursue different models, but the ultimate objective should be universal: to empower people and improve lives.

Perceptions and Military Realities

While China has no military bases near U.S. territory, the United States maintains a vast military presence encircling China. This includes:

• Japan: 80+ military sites, 56,000 troops

• South Korea: 30,000 troops, largest U.S. overseas base

• Philippines: Access to 10 strategic sites

• Guam & Micronesia: Key air and naval hubs

• Australia: Hosting U.S. bombers and surveillance assets

Additionally, Washington provides arms and military support to Taiwan—moves Beijing views as direct interference in its internal affairs. The dynamic is eerily reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, during which the U.S. firmly opposed Soviet military encroachment near its borders. China is unlikely to tolerate increasing U.S. military proximity without significant resistance.

Debunking the Canal Conspiracy

Recent U.S. political rhetoric has revived concerns about Chinese influence over the Panama Canal. However, these fears lack factual basis. The canal is operated by Panama’s independent Canal Authority—not China. While a Hong Kong-based firm, CK Hutchison Holdings, runs two port terminals, it has no control over canal operations and no direct ties to the Chinese government.

Accusations of preferential tolling are also unfounded. Under the 1977 Neutrality Treaty, all ships are treated equally. In 2023, only 27 out of 14,080 transits were made by U.S.-flagged vessels, and most U.S. Navy ships bypass the canal altogether due to size constraints. These claims appear more political than practical.

Power, Not Principles

At its core, the U.S.-China contest is about global influence—not democracy, human rights, or trade rules. Beijing’s rise threatens a U.S.-led global order that has endured since World War II. Washington’s response increasingly mirrors Cold War-era strategies of containment and pressure.

History shows that such strategies often fail to produce lasting peace. From Latin America to Southeast Asia, the U.S. previously relied on coups and proxies to curb Soviet influence. While today's language is more refined, the underlying strategic impulse remains strikingly similar.

Avoiding the Path to War

The most volatile flashpoint remains the Taiwan Strait. With heightened military presence, inflamed rhetoric, and complex regional alliances, the potential for miscalculation is dangerously high. A conflict between China and the U.S. would be catastrophic—not only for both countries but for global peace, supply chains, and economic stability.

The war in Ukraine should serve as a warning: when diplomacy fails and external actors impose their logic on regional conflicts, the result is often protracted bloodshed and lasting instability.

A Call for Engagement

The world stands at a crossroads. Rather than drifting into a new Cold War, global powers must pursue cooperation over confrontation. China’s development model—centered on poverty reduction, innovation, and infrastructure—offers an alternative that many in the Global South see as a source of inspiration, not intimidation.

The real race should focus on innovation and technology to address shared global challenges: climate change, inequality, pandemics, and resource security. Humanity needs solutions, not standoffs.

History teaches that even the most powerful empires cannot resist the tide of change. Whether that change is embraced with vision or resisted through fear will define the legacy of today's policymakers. We need leaders who think beyond borders—crafting policies guided by peace, cooperation, and long-term interests, not short-term dominance.

Conclusion: The Stakes Could Not Be Higher

The United States and China face a historic choice: to engage as competitive partners shaping a better world—or to spiral into conflict with no predictable end. In an age of ecological fragility, economic volatility, and rapid technological change, confrontation between superpowers is a risk the world simply cannot afford.

History will not forget what path they choose.